Is harperland crumbling?

It has been eroding for years.  As harper tries to expand support for his party by building on his base, he compromises, makes empty promises, lies,  defies Parliament, insults one group to please another, and engages in nasty attacks that eventually turn people away.  So what he has added on is not held together solidly.

This could go on for quite awhile if all he had to do was shift support from here to there and back again, but it’s what he can’t control that will make the whole structure crumble.  And what he can’t control – outside forces such as international politics, economics, and social forces – hit his weak spot.  

In 2006, US ambassador Wilkins wrote “unlike Martin, Harper has very little foreign experience; he will tend to focus, at least initially, on bilateral issues closer to home…”  While harper has gained some international experience, he has never seemed to grasp the importance of understanding and considering the ever changing international dynamics, forces,  and environments.

These forces pound relentlessly and unapologetically on Canadian politics, social issues,  and economics.  To ignore them, to fail to project their impact or consider them when making decision for Canada and for political gain is suicide.  No amount of muzzling, bullying, re-writing history, slogan spouting, or bribing will hold harper’s shaky structure together.

I believe it is beginning to crumble, and fast.  There are many reasons for this from arrogance leading to stupid comments to the far more serious impact of the rest of the world scrambling to cope with the latest economic storm.  Suddenly, harper finds himself facing countries with seasoned leaders who understand international diplomacy and politics and he is not invited to join some of the major powers as they re-align themselves according to shifting power dynamics.

Asia-Pacific interests?  What?  That one caught harper off-guard because he has great difficulty seeing beyond his preconceived ideas and earlier dictates from the US.  Now he wants in, hoping to grasp some little crumb as Obama looks to American interests regardless of the impact on Canada.

With harper’s abysmal performance on climate change including actively blocking progress at international summits, it isn’t likely he’s a favourite among Asia-Pacific countries which are among the ones hardesthit by warming.  

In additional to Canada’s declining credibility and influence internationally, what goes on in the rest of the world has another serious impact on harper’s hold on power:  he cannot muzzle international press, and he can’t stop politicians and influential people from other countries from speaking.  With international news a few keyboard strokes away, harper cannot control everything Canadians read and hear.  The insanity of pushing the F-35 is a good example.  It is impossible for harper to keep assuring Canadians that the jets are problem-free, affordable, even necessary.

The Occupy movement is coming at a very bad time for harper as well and is something else he can’t control or muzzle since it is international and boost the movement here at home.  

What I see as signs of crumbling are more and more leaks from public servants who are frustrated at not being able to serve the public without partisan interference and threats from the harper government, more and more public screw-ups by his own members – showing control is slipping, an increase in sudden changes and flip-flops (watch for the cancellation or shelving of the F-35 as harper now blames the Liberals for opening the competition), more finger pointing directed at major world powers such as the US and European countries.

I could be wrong, but I really don’t think harper and his party can hold up against the rapidly changing international environments.